Asian importers queue for fuel that experts confirmed in 2023 there would be far too much of
Oil Shortage Arrives Exactly Where the Oil Surplus Was Scheduled
SINGAPORE – The global energy forecasting profession issued a rare joint statement on Friday acknowledging that the worldwide surplus of oil it had confidently expected has, on arrival, turned out to be a shortage, and asking the public to judge it “on the direction of travel rather than the destination.” The background is given in an Asia Times account of how the oil and gas industry expected a surplus and got a shortage: in 2023 the International Energy Agency predicted that by 2028 the world would produce more oil than people wanted to buy, prices fell too low to attract investment in new wells and refineries, and no forecast anticipated trouble in the Strait of Hormuz.
“Our model was excellent,” said Arvind Ramasamy, principal seer at the Jurong Island Centre for Confident Projections. “It accounted for electric cars, efficiency gains, demographic change and consumer sentiment in forty countries. It did not account for a war in the one narrow stretch of water that all the oil goes through. In fairness, that was on a different slide.” Ramasamy said the surplus remains “very much in the pipeline, conceptually.”
A Prediction So Convincing It Prevented Itself
Economists note a certain elegance in the failure. Forecasters said there would be too much oil. Oil companies, believing them, stopped building things that produce oil. There is now not enough oil. The forecast was, in other words, so persuasive that it personally ensured it would be wrong, an achievement the Centre describes in its annual report as “high-impact research.”
For Asia, which imports most of its fuel and is located inconveniently far from its own petrol, the consequences are practical. Refiners in South Korea and Japan are bidding against each other for cargoes. Indian buyers are telephoning suppliers they had previously stopped inviting to things. A tanker broker in Singapore reported receiving 140 calls in one morning, 139 of them from people who opened with the words “as a long-standing friend.”
The Centre’s Revised Outlook
The Jurong Island Centre has now updated its projections for the remainder of the decade. The key findings are as follows:
- Oil will be either scarce or plentiful, with a margin of error of everything
- Prices will rise unless they fall
- Demand will peak in a year ending in a number
- The Centre’s accuracy rate remains 100 percent on forecasts not yet due
Subscriptions to the outlook cost 18,000 dollars a year. Renewals are reportedly strong, since every energy company needs a forecast and none wishes to be the only one holding a different wrong forecast from everybody else.
The Bill Lands in Unexpected Places
The effects are travelling. A related analysis warns that the US diesel crisis is about to become Asia’s interest rate problem, with American diesel above 6.50 dollars a gallon feeding inflation, rate rises and pressure on Asian currencies. A shortage that began as a spreadsheet error in the energy sector has thus become a mortgage problem in Manila, which Ramasamy called “a pleasing example of interconnectedness.”
Governments are responding with the traditional tools. Several have announced strategic reviews of their strategic reserves and discovered that the reserves were sized according to the forecast. One Southeast Asian energy ministry confirmed it holds enough emergency fuel for nineteen days, or for as long as nobody uses it. A minister urged citizens to carpool, then left in a convoy.
Motorists Offer Their Own Analysis
At a filling station in Johor Bahru, where the queue on Friday ran past a durian stall and around a corner, drivers were unanimous that they could have produced the forecast themselves at considerably lower cost. A delivery rider with 30 years on the road said his method is to assume that anything he needs will become expensive shortly after he needs it, and that this has never once failed. “I do not have a model,” he said. “I have a wallet. The wallet is always first to know.” A woman behind him said she had read in 2023 that oil was finished and had very nearly bought an electric car, but the charger at her condominium was broken and remains broken. The Jurong Island Centre said it welcomes public engagement and noted that neither motorist holds a doctorate. The queue moved forward by one car.
Britain Recognises a Fellow Professional
The forecasters have found a sympathetic audience in the United Kingdom, a country whose official projections have predicted sunshine through several well-documented floods. The British satirical news editors at The London Prat observed that the Treasury has forecast a return to growth in every year since 2008 and remains technically correct about the future. The paper’s London satirical news page keeps a running tally of predictions under the heading “Any Day Now.”
At the Centre, work has already begun on the 2035 outlook. Ramasamy said the team has learned from the experience and will add a new variable to the model labelled “events.” Asked what value it would be given, he said zero, as a baseline. “You cannot forecast the unforeseeable,” he said. “You can only invoice for it.” Bohiney Magazine has subscribed for one year and expects to be surprised.
SOURCE: https://bohiney.com/
